The Fed expects to cut rates just once this year | CNN Business (2024)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is framed by a trader's screens on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, on Wednesday, June 12.

Stocks ended the day mixed Wednesday as investors parsed a key inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s latest projections for interest rate cuts this year.

The Dow fell 35 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.5%, reaching record-high closes for the third consecutive day.

Investors cheered the May Consumer Price Index report, which showed that inflation cooled at a slower pace than expected last month. Consumer prices rose 3.3% from the prior year, a slower clip than April’s 3.4% rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a monthly basis, prices were unchanged, slowing from April’s 0.3% gain.

The Fed on Wednesday afternoon held rates steady as expected, but signaled that it now expects to cut rates just once in 2024 rather than the three times it had previously forecast.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated at the post-meeting press conference that the central bank will not cut rates until it sees more data showing that inflation is cooling.

As stocks settle after the trading day, levels might change slightly.

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell arrives to annouce that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the Federal Reserves’ William McChesney Martin building on June 12 in Washington, DC.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index data showing inflation cooled to 3.3% last month from 3.4% in April is “encouraging.”

But Powell isn’t in full celebratory mode.

That’s because the report “comes after several reports that were not so encouraging.” Officials were caught off guard in March when CPI jumped to 3.5% from 3.2% in February, marking the biggest one-month acceleration in half a year. That, along with other inflation data, caused officials to reconsider how many rate cuts would be merited this year.

Powell declined to answer whether the new data pushes up the timetable for a potential rate cut.

“Certainly, more good inflation readings will help with that,” he said in a post-meeting press conference on Wednesday afternoon. But he cautioned that inflation data is just one piece of the puzzle and the decision to cut rates will be based on the “totality” of economic data.

Inflation-beating interest rates are still available to savers and investors looking for very low-risk ways to grow their money.

People carrying variable-rate debt like credit cards and those seeking a loan won’t be happy given that the Federal Reserve’s benchmark lending rate rate, which directly and indirectly affects consumers’ borrowing costs, remains at a 23-year high.

Those rates will likely stay high for a while, since central bankers’latest summary of economic projections shows just one rate cut is likely this year. And when that cut does come, it’s likely to be small.

“Absent a complete about-face from the economy, interest rates aren’t likely to come down soon enough, or fast enough, to provide meaningful relief to borrowers. Utilize zero-percent credit card balance transfer offers, shop around for lower fixed-rate personal loans and home equity loans, and channel as much income as possible toward paying down this debt as quickly as possible,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst.

But the Fed’s decision leaves savers, once again, in the catbird seat when it comes to making money on their money.

Read more here.

Federal Reserve officials believe there’s aGoldilocks interest rate out there. One that isn’t so low that it ushers in inflation, yet not so high that it tips the economy into a recession. Officials refer to this as r-star or the “neutral rate of interest.”

In theory, that perfect rate exists in the real world. And it’s likely the missing puzzle piece needed for the Fed to achieve a soft landing, where inflation is tamed but a recession is avoided.

Fed officials now seem to believe the neutral rate is higher in the long run than they anticipated, whereas rates before the pandemic were “very low” historically, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters.

“Ultimately we think that things like the neutral rate are driven by longer run, slow-moving forces,” Powell said on Wednesday. “There’s a really good question about whether those really have changed or whether instead rates and the economy are experiencing a series of persistent but ultimately temporary shocks.”

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, today.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been wanting to see the US labor market get into a “better balance” for quite some time now.

It looks like he’s getting his wish. The job market is starting to resemble its pre-pandemic state, the Fed chief said Wednesday.

Reading from his prepared remarks, Powell rattled off a series of employment data: payroll gains averaging218,000 per month in April and May; unemployment having crept up but remaining low at 4%; job creation driven by increases in participation among prime-aged workers and immigrants; slower wage growth; and a narrower jobs-to-workers ratio.

“Overall, a broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic, relatively tight but not overheated,” Powell said.

During his post-meeting press conference, Powell said the Fed continues to keep a close eye on the labor market.

“We see gradual cooling, gradual moving toward a better balance,” he said. “We’re monitoring it carefully for signs of something more than that, but we really don’t see that.”

The New York Stock Exchange is seen on April 29 in New York City.

Here’s what Wall Street has to say after the Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it will cut rates just once in 2024:

Federal Reserve officials are now predicting just one rate cut for the year as opposed to the three cuts they predicted back in March and at the end of last year.

The Fed doesn’t target one specific interest rate. Rather it targets a range of interest rates through what’s known as the federal funds rate, which in turn influences the interest rates we pay on all kinds of debt.

Currently, the Fed is targeting a range between 5.25-5.5%, the highest level in 23 years. A 25-point cut would lower the target range to between 5-5.25%.

At the height of the pandemic, the Fed targeted a range between 0-0.25%, the lowest it had been since the Great Recession. It wasn’t until March 2022 that Fed officials voted to raise the target range to 0.25-0.5%. By the end of 2022, the range was between 4.25-4.5% after officials authorized a series of steep hikes to rein in inflation.

Wall Street’s best bet for the first rate cut is currently September, according to futures, and those odds improved markedly after the release of the May CPI. For that to happen, however,inflationwill have to continue to drift lower in the coming months.

Officials frequently emphasize that they are “data dependent” and make conclusions about theeconomyafter data stretching over several months reveal a trend. It’s unclear if the factors that resulted in hotter-than-expectedinflationreadings earlier this year are still lurking in the background, but the May CPI provided some relief.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will likely field questions about rate cut timing in his post-meeting press conference, scheduled for 2:30 pm ET.

Traders work on the floor at theNewYorkStockExchangetoday.

The Dow inched lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates on hold and signaled it expects one rate cut in 2024.

The Dow fell 14 points, or 0.04%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.6%.

The Fed previously forecasted three quarter-point rate cuts this year. But signs of sticky inflation and a still-hot labor market have put those cuts on the backburner.

Still, investors were cheered on Wednesday by a cooler-than-expected May Consumer Price Index report, which showed that inflation slowed more than expected last month.

An exterior view of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building, on January 21, 2024, in Washington.

TheFederal Reservesaid Wednesday it is keeping its benchmark lending rates at their current levels for the seventh time in a row, while signaling fewer rate cuts than previously estimated.

That means borrowing costs on everything from car loans to mortgages will remain elevated.

TheFedhas kept interestratesat a 23-year high for nearly a year, after kicking off an aggressive rate-hiking campaign in March 2022.

Central bankers are waiting for more evidence thatinflationis headed toward 2% — but theeconomy’s resilience is keeping them on hold.

Federal Reserve officials are anticipating a higher inflation rate this year, 2.6% measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, compared to the 2.4% prediction they made in March. That’s according to new projections the central bank released Wednesday afternoon.

As of April, PCE inflation is at 2.7%. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, which officials don’t see the central bank achieving until 2026.

They also expect the inflation rate excluding volatile components like food and energy — also known as “core inflation” — to be 2.8% this year, which is higher than the levels they predicted in March.

Officials don’t think the unemployment rate will move above its current level of 4% for the remainder of the year, a prediction they made back in March as well.

Federal Reserve officials meet just four more times this year — in July, September, November and December. So the single rate cut officials are now penciling in for the year could hypothetically come at either of those meetings.

But Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have repeatedly said they need to see more “good” inflation data indicating inflation is on a sustainable path to the Fed’s 2% goal before they can consider cutting interest rates.

There’s a decent chance they’ll get that reassurance in November. There’s just one little issue: Their decision would be announced two days after Election Day.

Optically, it could seem as though the central bank was waiting until after the election to cut so as not to boost President Joe Biden’s chances of getting reelected since rate cuts generally tend to have a positive impact on stocks and make it cheaper to get loans.

But as an independent body, the Fed makes all of its decisions regardless of politics and has no ulterior motive in terms of helping one candidate’s odds of getting elected.

LorettaJ.Mester, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, looks on at Teton National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, on August 26, 2022.

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester is set to cast her last vote on monetary policy decisions at Wednesday’s meeting.

Mester, who became president of the Cleveland Fed a decade ago, will be retiring at the end of this month. Beth Hammackwas recently named as Mester’s successor. However, she will not assume the role until August 21. For the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will be voting in place of the Cleveland Fed.

At every Fed meeting, 12 Fed officials vote, seven of whom are from the Fed’s board of governors. Aside from New York Fed President John Williams, the remaining votes are from an annually rotating panel of regional Fed presidents. Goolsbee is currently an alternate voter and otherwise would not have voted until 2025.

A screen displays a news conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on May 1.

After getting its preferred inflation gauge down from over 7% in June 2022 — its highest level since the early 1980s — to itscurrent readingof 2.7%, you’d think central bankers would be breathing a sigh of relief.

And yet, Federal Reserve officials are likely doing anything but that at their June two-day monetary policy meeting, which kicked off on Tuesday.

Officials are all but certain to leave rates unchanged regardless of the better-than-expected May Consumer Price Index report.

“Of course we’re not satisfied with 3% inflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powelltold reportersafter last month’s policy meeting, adding that “3% can’t be in a sentence with satisfied.”

Powell and his colleagues at the Fed will not budge on 2%. And until they’re convinced inflation is on a sustainable path to that level, rate cuts won’t be on the table.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen on September 19, 2022 in Washington, DC.

The Federal Reserve’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections includes a chart that is colloquially known as the dot plot, which shows where each of the central bank’s 19 officials expect interest rates to go in the future.

If the Fed has shifted its thinking about when to lower interest rates, it will come through in this chart.

Investors pay close attention to these forecasts for information about the path of rate hikes. When there’s a shift in the plot, it tells investors that the Fed could plan a change in how they’re approaching rates.

The official policy statement from the Federal Reserve represents a consensus amongthe voting policy members, but this extra data allows investors to look under the hood and see what’s going on behind the scenes.

The plot can also underscore the difference between what investors think will happen and what the Fed thinks will happen. So if the Fed projects fewer rate hikes ahead, that will likely send bond yields higher and markets lower.

Economists are widely expecting the latest SEP to show officials have penciled in one or two rate cuts this year, instead of the three they forecast in March.

The U.S. flag is magnified in Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell's glasses as he announces that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building on May 1 in Washington, DC.

“There has been little in the way of measurable improvement in inflation since the Fed’s May meeting, so the prospect and timing of any interest rate cut remains unclear,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, in a note this week.

The central bank is set to release its latest economic projections Wednesday, which will likely show an expectation for one rate cut this year, down from the original three signaled in December.

“Absent a complete about-face from the economy, interest rates aren’t likely to come down soon enough, or fast enough, to provide meaningful relief to borrowers.”

People cross a street in front the headquarters building of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on June 5.

The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank both cut interest rates last week to lower borrowing costs as inflation recedes followingyears of rate hikes. Central banks inSwitzerlandand Sweden have also cut interest rates this year.

It’s a move that should bring some relief to companies and consumers, many of whom have felt the financial strain ofthe rapid run-up in interest rates since late 2021.

Yet the Federal Reserve is still holding out. Here’s why.

People have lunch at a restaurant at the Moynihan Train Hall on May 11, 2023, in New York City.

Grocery pricesstayed flat in May, afterticking downthe month before. But menu prices, a source of frustration for budget-conscious consumers, are still going up — even as restaurantsbrag about their discounted meals.

Menu prices rose 0.4% at sit-down restaurants from April to May, adjusted for seasonal swings, according toinflation datareleased Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In that time, prices ticked up by 0.2% at limited service spots, which include fast casual and fast food joints.

The difference between grocery increases and menu price inflation was more pronounced for the full year. Grocery prices rose 1% in the 12 months through May. In that period, menu prices at full-service, or sit-down, restaurants rose 3.5%. They jumped 4.5% at limited-service restaurants, which include fast food and fast casual joints.

Those increases, particularly in fast food prices, have caused customers topull back, eroding the sector’s reputation for affordability.

Restaurant chains raise menu prices every year, but the pace has increased since the pandemic. While higher prices didn’t scare people off at first, customers seem to have had enough, leaving chains to reverse course.

Read more here.

A man puts gas in a truck at a station on June 11 in Chicago, Illinois.

Inflation appears to be getting back to its slowing ways, but a deep dive through the data shows that some prices are even falling to 2020 levels.

From May to April, prices fell in about half of the spending categories tracked for the CPI, a larger share than the April to March timeframe, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.

The biggest declines were seen in “other condiments” (dips, baking powder, chocolate chips, vinegar, etc.), which were down 6.1%; gasoline, down 3.7%; and airline fares, down 3.6%.

Monthly data, even the seasonally adjusted kind, can be volatile, but the trends are showing up in more long-term data. As of May, a couple more categories (women’s outerwear and public transportation) are showing prices are down as compared to February 2020.

And while televisions (down 22.6%), toys (down 6.7%), and airfares (down 4.7%) are among some of the most notable spending areas where things have become cheaper, only 6% of the CPI categories are down from the pre-pandemic benchmark.

Specialist James Denaro works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 12.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both hit record highs Wednesday morning before retreating from those levels, as investors continued parsing the better-than-expected inflation report.

The Dow rose 89 points, or 0.2%, by midday Wednesday. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.7%.

Wall Street is awaiting the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision and latest set of rate projections due at 2 pm ET.

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell announced that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the bank's William McChesney Martin building on May 1 in Washington, DC.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates at a 23-year high for the seventh consecutive meeting on Wednesday and signal that it will cut rates this year fewer times than previously thought.

Investors and other market observers will be paying close attention to Fed officials’ latest economic forecasts — known as the “dot plot.” Economists are widely expecting officials to pencil in one or two rate cuts this year, instead of the three they forecast in March. Their projections for inflation will also be an important clue for the timing of the first rate cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated in recent speeches that they will likely cut interest rates sometime this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at a London event in late May that “it certainly won’t be more than two cuts.”

It’ll be a difficult and consequential decision whenever the Fed starts cutting, because there are risks if the Fed reduces rates too soon — and risks if it cuts too late. The former could result in inflation heating back up and the latter could result in the economy slipping into a recession because rates were too high for too long.

Traders are much more optimistic about the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, following the release of May’s Consumer Price Index.

The index showed inflation cooled more than expected last month — falling to 3.3% from 3.4% in April on an annual basis.

Before the data was released Wednesday morning, investors predicted a 47% chance the Fed would cut rates by 25 points in September. Now, they see a 61% chance of that happening, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Those odds are likely to change later in the day, after the Fed releases its so-called “dot plot” at 2 pm ET, which will indicate how many rate cuts officials are expecting this year.

Homes sit on lots in a residential neighborhood on March 15 in Miami, Florida.

Had it not been for the 0.4% monthly rise in the shelter index of May’s Consumer Price Index, the nation’s inflation rate likely would have cooled even more than it did last month.

That rise completely offset the 3.6% monthly decline in gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a release Wednesday morning. Shelter alone accounts for more than a third of CPI, so even small monthly increases can have a significant impact.

Housing has been one of the biggest challenges for the Federal Reserve’s goal of getting inflation back down to 2%. The Fed’s cumulative interest rate hikes have had a negligible impact on housing costs mainly because supply remains constrained. Additionally, people who locked in low mortgage rates when the Fed kept rates at near-zero levels during the pandemic aren’t looking to move any time soon.

The White House is seen on June 11 in Washington, DC.

The Biden administration touted Wednesday’s CPI report, which showed that inflation cooled at a higher rate than expected in May.

Lael Brainard, head of the National Economic Council, told CNN the report “is welcome news, particularly for families that are feeling squeezed by the cost of living.”

“The President knows that families have been through a lot with the pandemic. Inflation went up with the pandemic, and he knows that the cost of living is just too high for a lot of families,” Brainard told CNN in an interview Wednesday, pointing to steps under the Biden administration lowering the cost of prescription drugs and groceries.

When pressed, however, if she believed the US had achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession, the former vice chair of the Federal Reserve demurred, telling CNN, “I think that we have achieved a good labor market, more in balance, and inflation coming down, but we have more work to do, and so we’re going to keep working to keep the labor market at the good place that it is today. And continue to bring costs down because we have more work to do there.”

People shop at a Target store in Manhattan on March 5 in New York City.

In a welcome sign for the US economy, inflation cooled more than expected last month, falling to 3.3% from 3.4% in April. You might think that means that you’re going to start seeing some prices drop — but that’s not quite what’s happening.

While discounts are starting to appear more at big-box retailers like Target and Walmart, Americans are far from experiencing price cuts across the board. That’s because inflation cooling simply means that the pace of price increases is slowing. However, it does not mean that the actual prices we pay for goods and services are lower than they were a year ago.

The Federal Reserve specifically doesn’t want deflation — a scenario where prices are falling across the board — to occur and targets a 2% inflation rate.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on May 24 in New York City.

Stocks rose Wednesday morning as investors cheered the May Consumer Price Index report.

The Dow rose 334 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9%.

Consumer prices rose 3.3% from the prior year, a slower clip than April’s 3.4% rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a monthly basis, prices were unchanged, a slowing from April’s 0.3% gain. Both metrics were cooler than economists’ consensus estimates, according to FactSet.

The Federal Reserve reports its latest interest rate decision, expected to be a pause, at 2 pm ET. The central bank will also release its latest projections on how many times it expects to cut rates this year— or any other rate changes.

While the current projections are for three quarter-point rate cuts, some investors believe that a strong labor market and a string of sticky inflation reports earlier this year means the Fed could trim that forecast to just one or two cuts in 2024.

Investors will also listen carefully for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 pm ET.

People shop at a supermarket in Montebello, California, on May 15.

While the better-than-expected CPI inflation report won’t suddenly impact consumers who have been suffering through decades-high inflation for the last couple of years, it’s certainly a good start.

“Will consumers suddenly feel relieved from the burden of elevated prices? No,” wrote Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst, in a note Wednesday morning.

“But they are supported by a still robust job market that supports employment and wage gains rising above the recent pace of inflation.”

Here’s what Wall Street has to say about the May Consumer Price Index:

Stock futures climbed higher on Wednesday morning after fresh data revealed inflation cooled more than forecasted last month.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 244 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures added 0.7% and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.9%.

Consumer prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices were flat from the month before. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase and gain of 3.4% from the prior year, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

A shopper carries shopping bags in San Francisco, California, on June 7.

Inflation cooled in May, new data showed Wednesday, delivering a welcome piece of news just hours before the Federal Reserve is set to make its latest announcement on interest rates.

Consumer prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier, slowing from April’s 3.4% rate, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index report released Wednesday.

On a monthly basis, prices were flat, a slower pace from April’s 0.3% gain.

It’s the first time since July 2022 that CPI did not rise on a monthly basis.

Economists were expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and an annual gain of 3.4%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

Helping to slow inflation in May were falling gas prices, which dropped 3.6% from April. They’re still up 2.2% for the year. Grocery prices were flat and overall food prices went up by 0.1%, lifted by a slight acceleration in inflation at the restaurant level.

However, shelter inflation more than offset the decline in gasoline, rising 0.4% for the fourth month in a row, underscoring the pressure Americans are feeling fromhousing-related expenses.

Excluding gas and food, categories that tend to be volatile, the closely watched “core” measure rose just 0.2% for the month (its slowest pace since October of last year), and its annual rate dropped to 3.4%, setting a fresh three-year low.

US stock futures edged higher Wednesday morning as Wall Street looked to the May Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 36 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.1%.

Investors will parse the inflation report first at 8:30 am ET. The Fed releases its rate decision, expected to be a pause, at 2 pm ET.

The New York Stock Exchange is shown on Tuesday, June 11.

Wall Street will be parsing the May Consumer Price Index report just hours before the Federal Reserve is slated to announce its monetary policy update.

The CPI report and Fed’s policy meeting have fallen on the same day just seven times since 2014, according to Bank of America.

Despite the rare event, it’s unlikely the stock market will swing widely because of the economic two-fer, some investors say.

“The things that could drive volatility higher would be if Chair Powell was to say something unexpected; I think that is of a very low probability,” wrote Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, in a Monday note. But if “inflation metrics come out much higher than expected, that could lead to a small sell-off. How much the market sells off would depend on how much above consensus inflation is running.”

The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold this month. Some analysts say upcoming CPI data won’t alter the Fed’s June decision, unless it shows a huge deceleration or acceleration in inflation. But the metric will still help guide the Fed’s decisions during the second half of the year.

“The number of rate cuts the Fed will actually be able to deliver this year will depend heavily on the outlook for inflation; if it remains stickier, investors may want to temper their expectations for easing for 2024,” wrote Glenmede’s investment strategy team in a Monday note.

Here’s what Wall Street expects from the latest Consumer Price Index report and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

A customer shops at a Target store on May 20 in Miami, Florida.

The Consumer Price Index for May isn’t expected to show a significant slowdown in inflation, but it could be an additional piece of evidence showing that the heat seen in the first quarter has subsided.

April’s report showed a cooler read on inflation than the hotter-than-expected prints in the three preceding months and sent US stock indexes to record highs as a result.

For May, economists are expecting that prices grew a mere 0.1% from April (thanks mostly to falling gas prices and tame food prices) but that the annual rate would stay steady at 3.4%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

If prices were to advance 0.1% from April, it would mark the slowest monthly gain since October 2023.

Core CPI, which is looked to as a measure of underlying inflation as it strips out the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to increase at 0.3% for the second month in a row. If so, that would bring annual core inflation from 3.6% to 3.5%, setting a fresh three-year low.

Shelter inflation remains the biggest hurdle to CPI slowing, and it remains to be seen when the moderation in market-rate rents will be reflected in the critical inflation gauge.

All in all, the May CPI data should show some “encouraging evidence” of moderating inflation, but it won’t be definitive enough to green light a rate cut before September, noted Scott Anderson, chief economist with BMO.

Products are displayed at a grocery store on June 11, 2024 in San Anselmo, California.

Inflationshowed signs of cooling in Aprilafter staying worryingly warm during the first quarter of this year.

There are also signs that Americans are spending less: A second estimate of gross domestic product, released in May, showed that consumer spending was weaker in the first three months of the year than initially reported. Big-box retailers are cutting prices to entice price-conscious consumers.

Investors are looking to the May CPI for clues about whether that cooldown in April’s CPI report was a blip. Already, other metrics have suggested that inflation is still taking its time to come down.

The April Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge,showed the US economy made little progresskeeping costs in check. US home prices are at record highs. Prices for used and new cars are still running hot, as are costs for insuring, repairing and maintaining them.